Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), is up today as traders assess a slew of positive updates from cryptocurrency and macro markets.
Ethereum future ETF euphoria behind ETH rise
On Sep. 29, Ether’s price rose nearly 2.5% to $1,688, its highest level in a month.
ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
The intraday gains came as a part of a broader upside move that started the previous day when asset manager Valkyrie gained regulatory approval to add Ethereum futures exposure to its existing Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BTF).
The news appeared alongside claims that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may approve “a bunch of Ethereum futures ETFs” for launch next week. That includes fifteen ETH futures ETFs from nine issuers awaiting approval.
Latest U.S. PCE report boost risk appetite
Ethereum got an additional boost from the latest U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, also known as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
Notably, the PCE rose 0.1% in August, lower than the market’s expectations of 0.2%. That helped take some air off from an otherwise rising U.S. bond yields, helping non-yielding assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies rise.
US 10-year Treasury note yield vs. Nasdaq 100 vs. ETH/USD daily performance chart. Source: TradingView
A cooling inflation indicates that Fed may keep its interest rates unchanged at the current 525-550 basis points (bps) range. CME’s Fed futures rate data shows a 87.5% possibility of a rate pause in the next Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) meeting on Nov. 1.
Fed’s target rate probabilities for Nov. 1 2023 meeting. Source: CME
Short liquidations outnumber long
Ethereum’s price gains on Sep. 29 also coincides with short liquidations worth $7.88 million across Ether-tied derivatives. In comparison, only $1.7 million worth of long positions were liquidated on the same day.
ETH total liquidations chart. Source: CoinGlass
Short sellers liquidated their positions by buying the underlying asset. Therefore, the combination of new buyers and short liquidations pushed up the Ether price.
Ethereum price technical analysis
The Sep. 29 upside move in the Ethereum market has pushed the Ether price above its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near $1,770.
ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
Flipping the 50-day EMA from resistance to support enables the ETH price to eye $1,740 in October 2023 as its next upside target. This level coincides with two key resistances: the 200-day EMA (the blue wave) and the 0.382 Fib line.
In addition, the level is $20 shy of Ethereum’s falling wedge upside target, as shown below.
ETH/USD daily price chart ft. falling wedge breakout setup. Source: TradingView
However, breaking below the 50-day EMA support raises Ether’s risks of falling toward the 0.5 Fib line near $1,610 in October, down about 3.75% from current price levels.
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